We’ve been watching the development of Covid19 carefully and have come to the conclusion that it’s in everyone’s best interests to avoid social contact as far as possible, so we are not running clubs this easter holiday. We hope and expect to resume in Summer, but will update closer to the time.
The good news is getting Covid19 isn’t awful for the majority of people- but some will need health care. If we take steps to slow the spread of the disease and keep our health service from being overwhelmed, we can get through this. Social distancing is an important part of that.
Locally we’re currently in the minority to take this view, so there are plenty of alternatives to choose from, should you want to. But first please hear the logic behind this decision.
First things first- this is serious. It’s not flu. The death rate on this is at least 10x higher.
Notice the age ranges aren’t the same for flu and Covid19 on the graph below- but the story it tells is one that is worth knowing.
Secondly, if we don’t put controls in place in time, we won’t be able to look after those that need it most. An Italian doctor on twitter says:
“Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest.”
In other words, apparently if you go into Italian hospital right now with this thing age 65+, or younger but with diabetes, asthma, etc etc medical attention is likely to be minimal. There are so many other patients who are more likely to make it through, and staff are already working flat out to help them.
Thirdly- There is hope!! We’re not experiencing anywhere like the cases Italy are right now, and we all have the power to change things. Getting it isn’t a problem for the majority of people. The real problem is everyone getting it at the same time. “The total number of infected people isn’t what scares many epidemiologists. It’s how many are infected at the same time.
An unchecked pandemic will lead to an ever-quickening rate of infection. If, however, we engage in social distancing, proper quarantining and proper hygiene, we can slow the rate of spread, and make sure there are enough resources to properly care for everyone.This can also buy us time for a vaccine to be developed.” (source)
Social distancing is simple and effective. We can all play a part in minimising the numbers infected at one time. Here are some links that discuss this, in order of how interesting I think they are-
And finally, my own opinion. Before I ran BroadTree, I did a job doing detailed data analysis. Thankfully, there’s no need to get complicated here. This graph (ironically appearing in the BBC’s “Three reasons the UK might not look like Italy) shows the UK is heading to the same place at the same speed that Italy is currently in.
Do you want to end up in the same healthcare situation as Italy?
If not, change the result by choosing social distancing. The time to do your bit is today.
Thanks for reading. Please help #flattenthecurve.
This is just an opinion. There were no doctors, medical professionals or insider information involved in the creation of this. There’s no point panicking, freaking out or getting into fights over loo roll- most of us will be fine, and our role is simply to slow this down so others are also fine. This is not advice, it’s a collection of information and an opinion. BroadTree Ltd accept no responisibility for actions (and their consequences) taken, or not, as a result of this message.
Note: For our school activities, we are choosing to continue unchanged until schools close. Working outside will almost certainly be lower risk than inside, and even if we cancel, the children will still be required to come into school. We are aware that the decision of when to close schools needs to be made at just the right time and are hoping it comes sooner rather than later.
If you are involved in a Forest School, childcare or similar and wish to use this as a basis to create your own response then please do- we’d love to hear from you at firstname.lastname@example.org!